Thanks to the news surrounding the “Four Time Bombs” in the Workers Party manifesto, there is an air of inevitability about a General Election taking place this year. As in previous elections, a resounding PAP win is expected. While the result seems to be a forgone conclusion, political observers are wondering what issues will be raised in an election.
One issue that seems to have escaped attention is the possible identity of the next Prime Minister. It may seem premature to talk about identifying the next PM with our current one barely into the second year on the job, but Singapore’s political leaders have consistently stressed the importance of having a next generation prepared to take over from the current one. Will we have an idea of who will form our next generation of leaders and what is the criterion that we should use when searching for them?
The main criterion seems to be youth. The next PM should for all intents and purposes be at least a decade younger than the current one. This precedent was established by Lee Kuan Yew when he cited the desire to hand over to a ‘new generation’ of leaders as the reason for relinquishing the PM’s office. In 1990, a man in his late 60s handed power to a man in his 40s. Goh Chok Tong followed this example and handed over power to a man in his 50s when he was in his 60s. Both men had deputies who were at least a decade younger than themselves.
Our current PM does not have that. The current cabinet is made up primarily of men older or of a similar age to the Prime Minister. PM Lee is 54 and assuming he steps down in 14 years time, he will be 68. Ministers like George Yeo, Lim Hng Kiang and Teo Chee Hean will be of a similar age.
Will there be moves by the PM to give the few younger cabinet members more exposure? Why, for example, was Dr Ng Eng Heng (six years younger than the PM) the first person to attack the Workers Party manifesto? Should we expect more from Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Vivian Balakrishnan and Raymond Lim? Should we also look to other centres to provide us with political leaders? The opposition parties are divided and in disarray so they look unlikely to provide an alternative for sometime to come. But that does not mean that we lack centres of power where future leaders can develop from.
One example is from women’s organisations like AWARE. Although there are no women in the cabinet, the profile of women in politics has risen thanks to politicians like Lim Hwee Hwa and Lily Neo. The establishment of a women’s branch of the Young PAP is a sign that women are recognised as important constituency that needs to be cultivated. Although there are at the moment no women in the cabinet, the situation could easily change in a reshuffle that takes place after an election.
The current PM does not have the luxury of an obvious successor. This is clearly worrying him and I remember quite clearly that one of the first things he noticed was the fact that Prime Ministers were assuming office at a later age. Could our next PM for example assume office in his 60s?
The idea of a man who does have youth on his side assuming office sounds worrying. Singapore has done well by having leaders who have had the energy and mental prowess to stay in office long enough to have their agenda implimented. Leaders who die in office don't usually do very much and this often leads to political instability.
Having said that, lifespans have been increasing. People are living well beyond their alloted three score and ten years and they are doing it in a rather energetic fashion at that. So, while the idea of the next PM being in his 60s may sound worrying, evidence suggest that it need not be so.
And besides, the older leader may have something interesting to add to the equation. Let us not forget that the US President who has been credited for defining the latter part of the 20th century is Ronald Regan. He became president at the sprinkling age of 70.
We've barely started the current PM's term so it would seem that there are plenty of years for him to groom a potential successor. However, as it is so often said, never too late to start the process. Old criteria for selecting a leader should have vanished. It may make life more uncertain. But that surely should make life more interesting.
Copyright: Tang Li (c) 2006
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